Dear Friends,
I am sorry. The Praesciens Youtube Channel Gadget was working until a few hours ago yesterday, but seem to have broken down today. I hope Google / Blogger.Com fixes it soon. In the meantime, please ignore the instructions for the Praesciens Youtube Channel Player until you can see a chart image instead of some words concerning the malfunction of the gadg.
You can still check out my Youtube Channel by clicking the website link below
Praesciens Youtube Channel
I'm also going to try to embed the video clip to this post. Wish me luck!
Best wishes,
Ooi Hun Pin
Posts
Migrating to a new blog
15 years ago
3 comments:
hi Ooi- tried out youtube- seems ok,but i think my computers abit slow-tends to keep pausing to reload which causes my brain to reload.I think i will stick to the written word- leaves more to the imagination-just like the movie is never as good as the book.
We seem to be tracing out a triangle on the s&p,which everyone & his dog seems to be following- wave 4 in process then the big dip into 5.Could the ew followers have their wave count wrong & maybe 5 has occured ? I find it scary to think that despite what entire govts r doing worldwide(unprecedented),there might be another sharp leg down.ideally a couple of weeks or months grinding up to then tests the low(double bottom)& then up
some interesting sites
ttheory.typepad. com, a40 yr cycle buff
hussman.net ,check out why he says we should follow warren buffett
another old adage that seems to have been forgotten in these trying times- "dont fight the fed" & all central banks worldwide it seems.To me it looks like while the US & europe r healing with all this liquidity,asia is about to rock & roll
Dear Jothi,
Looks like this time the Triangle Pattern Formation Scenario is working out, although the market volatility is still much higher than expected. Hopefully it will stabilize. I am waiting for opportunities that will arise after the market is much more stable.
As for your website recommendations, I will try to check them out when I have a bit of time. Thank you for sharing.
As for Warren Buffet's winning formula, it has evolved. He is now into special deals that few else in the world can ask for.
It is true that he has been successful with his application of what I call the Strategic Leadership Investing, i.e. he looks at companies that will win competitors and grow in profitable market share as well as ROI in the longer term. I agree that this is one great formula to make money, and in the past, I have made money from applying such an investment formula. I was a Fundamentalist for 25 years, and still am.
However, I have come to realize that you cannot evaluate markets in times of irrational exuberance or panic selling with rational analysis.
I am looking forward to applying Warren Buffett's methodology the moment I think that the market is near rock bottom, based on technical analysis, but I think we are not anywhere near there yet. What we are seeing is only a Medium Term Wave Bottom, not the Main Primary Wave Bottom.
Thus, I would share with you my concern, and ask you to be careful. I also would like to share with you that there has been a brilliant piece of research done by Ned Davis Research in 2005, that visually correlates the S&P500 (Adjusted for Inflation) with the US Birth Rate Moved Ahead by 46 Years.
The US Birth Rate is moved ahead by 46 years to assess the behavior of the S&P500 when the babies grow to that age. There is an uncanny resemblance in the chart between two variables.
Just as a new township tends to boom when people start to move in, when birth rates are high, the S&P500 moves in tandem, 46 years later.
This chart explains very clearly why we have experienced the greatest bull market ever in the history of stock markets, since early 1980s till now.
Can we ask for more? Dare we ask for more?
However, if you believe in the Baby Boomers' Theory (where they are now getting a lot older, and some are starting to take permanent vacation in Heaven), the US (and world in general), will be experiencing a significant downturn in birth rate for almost 20 years.
If the statistical correlation and visual resemblance of the chart holds true, albeit some short term fluctuations in financial markets, we are looking at a 20 year Bear Primary Market Cycle, till around 2025.
If there is a 20 year Primary Bull Cycle, what makes us think that there shouldn't be a 15 or 20 year Primary Bear Cycle? I did quite a bit of fundamental research on economic and stock market cycles about 1.5 years back, and I can tell you that Primary Bull & Bear Cycles do happen, and have been happening in the last 100 years.
Unfortunately, I don't have the time to share this research on my blog yet. Also, the Ned Davis Research is copyright material, and I cannot find it on the web, which means it isn't published for public consumption, and thus, I am unable to share it for fear of copyright infringement.
BUT, take it from me. The chart looks like what you just saw in the Dow stock market crash, in terms of the US Birth Rate Moved Ahead by 46 Years, in the next 20 years. This is why I am extremely careful about this downturn.
Usually, I would be buying on fundamentals by now, but not this time. I held HSBC for 18 years, from the time of the Tianamen Square Crisis, had a fantastic ROI, and would like more of that to happen in the next 20 years.
BUT, what if the world goes through a 20 Year Primary Bear Cycle? It would be disastrous to buy and hold then.
I know this is extremely pessimistic, and you should form your own opinion.
I'm not saying that we are in a Primary Bear Cycle. By the time the technical analysis CONFIRMS such a case, it will be too late.
However, the technicals do point to such a possibility, and the fundamentals, unknown to the world, is also causing a bit of dicey concerns.
Please be very careful. This is a market for technical traders, not long term investors.
This is why I have worked on my skills in all three areas, i.e. Global Macro Analysis, including Inter-Market Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Technical Analysis. And if I still can't become rich with these skills, God help me.
Best wishes,
Ooi
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