Monday, August 8, 2011

The Dow has fallen by 13 %, i.e. 1,668 points from its peak of 12,794, to its most recent low at 11,126 set on Friday, 5th August 2011. A Japanese Candlestick called a Doji has been formed, which signifies a high probability that the worse is over, for now.

In my opinion, we have completed the 1st Wave of the Downtrend, and have formed a temporary bottom, but not the whole Downtrend Bottom. We are now ready to move into Wave 2, which is an Upward Wave. This Wave 2 is likely to be a technical rebound wave, and will peak at a maximum of 12,243 in the best case scenario, although it is most likely to peak at 11,960 +/-200 points. Subsequently, we can expect Wave 3 to fall at least 2,000 points, which will take the Dow to 10,000 +/- 200 points.