Friday, October 31, 2008

Birinyi: There's No Real Cure for Recession, Other Than Time

Dear Friends,

Here is a Bloomberg Interview with Laszlo Birinyi. In my opinion, he speaks great common sense. It is a common misconception of the public that a Government is able to "manage" an economic recession. Birinyi states that the real cure is time. I would add that the deeper the recession pain, the longer the time it takes to climb back to health.

Don't get me wrong. I am not saying that the US Government effort has not helped in reducing the economic pain. What I am explaining is that despite the US Government's effort, there will still be tremendous amount of economic pain, and only time can heal these wounds.

The key message here is to be careful, and not be too optimistic that there will be a quick economic recovery, based on the argument that the US Government and other Governments of the world has poured trillions of dollars into the problem.

In fact, we should be very worried that trillions of dollars are being spent, and yet, the problem is still extremely painful and protracted, and doesn't look like it has been solved. What are the implications of the Governments of the world spending trillions of dollars? Who will pay for these Government Debts eventually?

Best wishes,

Ooi

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