Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Bloomberg Interview of Peter Schiff on 28 October 2008

Dear Friends,

Here is a very interesting perspective from Peter Schiff on the US Government's management of its finances. If I am not mistaken, Peter Schiff is the advisor to Ron Paul, a Congressman, who is very vociferous (controversial to some) of the US Government Financial Management. Some people were hoping that Ron Paul would run for President against John McCain and Obama, but this did not happen.

Peter Schiff also wrote the book, "Crash Proof".

The key questions asked of the US Government Debt: -
  • How can US pay back what they have borrowed?
  • What happens if the world doesn't want to continue lending money to US?
  • What happens if the world decides it wants its money back?
Peter Schiff was asked what he would do if he were elected President. He said,

"There's no panacea. There's nothing we can do to immediately ease the pain. We borrowed and spent ourselves into bankruptcy. Now we got to deal with that reality. ... the one thing the Government could do is to shrink its size so that it is less of a burden to society. What the Government should be doing is to cut its spending. It should be cutting military spending .... slash entitlement spending.... We need to get the Government a lot smaller, so that we can actually cut taxes, and people won't have to support this gigantic government."

On the Dollar's Strength, Peter Schiff is bearish in the longer term: -

"Right now, there's this perverse dollar rally. As a result of all the deleveraging and redemptions. Once this rally runs out of steam, and it will run out of steam, then the Dollar is going to drop like a stone."

Peter Schiff also makes the arguments that US Home Foreclosures still has a long way to go. "Foreclosures are the real market".

Peter Schiff recommends buying Non US Stocks because he expects the US$ to weaken. I guess it all depends on the view of the Dollar in the longer term. If you think that the US$ is going to devalue, it might not make good business sense to invest in US Assets. On the other hand, if you think that the world will not change that much, and eventually, things will revert to more or less the same, then, US Assets may be the way to go.

This is why I spend a lot of time analyzing a wide range of financial markets i.e. Inter-Market Analysis of Forex, Oil & Gold, Stock Markets and the Economy) rather than actual stocks analysis. If we don't even know which financial market is going to be up or down, why bother to analyze individual stocks?

Best wishes,

Ooi

Part 1 of the Bloomberg Interview



Part 2 of the Bloomberg Interview


No comments: