Friday, July 3, 2009

US Banking Failures & The Potential for Credit Expansion

Dear Friends,

How many US Banks have failed since the economic crisis began in July 2007? 3 banks have just failed in Illinois state, and this brings the overall total today, to 48.

Another 305 banks are considered problem banks, and are on the watch list of FDIC, the Federal Depository Insurance Corporation, which guarantees the deposits of bank customers. The combined assets of these 305 problem banks total US$220 billion.

What is really interesting is that the some people had forecasted a total World Banking System Loss of US$4 trillion, and yet, to date, only around US$1.5 trillion Loss has been reported to the public.

Is the balance of US$2.5 trillion of forecasted banking losses real?

If it is, then the worst is yet to come. With US$1.5 trillion losses reported, the economic devastation and financial markets downturn had been most severe. If another US$2.5 trillion in losses are to surface in the next one to two years, ................... I leave the rest to your imagination.

Frankly, I don't know what to believe. What seems certain is that the world's major banks seem to be still very much crippled from any major lending, due to capital adequacy constraints. What this means is that we should not expect to see any major Credit Expansion Period, any time soon.

Without Credit Expansion of Significance, there will be not much economic growth, for most of the US Economic Growth had been fueled by Rapid and Significant Credit Expansion, and if such a trend is not forthcoming in the foreseeable future, then the Stagflation Scenario becomes very likely, with increasing risk of the Depression Scenario coming true.

Again, this Key Driving Force shaping the World Economic Future, supports the conclusions in my earlier blog article.

Best wishes,

Ooi

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